by Conan Simmons – September 17, 2020 – 4:07 am
It’s time to call it for what it is.
Hollywood no longer sees the U.S. box office as the primary player in total revenue returns. Because, at this late month of September, it isn’t. Only a couple of major releases are still scheduled for a domestic debut this year and even they are very heavily rumored to delay to 2021.
Covid-19 hit like a haymaker from outta left field at the end of last winter. March came around and the whole world shutdown. Movie theaters were in the same boat as everyone else and major film releases from the latest 007 thriller ‘No Time to Die’ to Disney’s, practically guaranteed box office smash, ‘Mulan’ were delayed.
As theaters remained quiet and summer crept around, drive-in theaters started opening up to provide some relief for the people stuck at home for months on end. New movie releases continued to get delayed with all eyes falling on Christopher Nolan’s ‘Tenet’ as the film that would say it’s time to roll film again. ‘Mulan’ also clung on for a while creating anticipation for at least two major box office draws.
More delays. ‘Tenet’ was finally set for an August release starting overseas before an early September launch in the U.S. whereas ‘Mulan’ opted for an overpriced streaming release domestically while setting a theatrical release in China.
Late August saw movie theaters in several states open. Those in New York and California largely remained closed. The Russell Crowe vehicle ‘Unhinged’ came out to decent box office returns and was followed by ‘The New Mutants’ ironically being released after sitting on the shelf for a couple of years as most all other movies were being put on the shelf.
‘Tenet’ finally hit theaters. Garnering approximately $20 million it showed that people were still willing to go out to theaters even with mask wearing and social distancing regulations. The following weekend it pulled in about another $6 million. Hollywood worked itself into a panic claiming Warner Bros. had manipulated the numbers to make ‘Tenet’ look to have performed better than it did, while still acknowledging the near $200 million the movie had already made from overseas.
‘Mulan’ had its own problems. Disney still has not provided the numbers for how well the film did on their streaming service which can only mean it didn’t do well at all. Controversies swirled around the production and Disney’s relationship to China over filming in the northwestern part of the country and thanking government offices that have a well documented hand in operating the Uighur concentration camps. As the studio placed its hopes on a big box office return from Chinese theaters they were left disappointed when it raked it less than $25 million.
Hollywood is now facing a reckoning on which markets they make movies for. The majors receive a lot of financing from China and the Middle East but those markets are very unreliable to release American movies in. They all insist on levels of censorship that stifles a films chances with the American market.
Major releases from Warner Bros. ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ to Universal’s ‘Candyman’ were to be the next major releases in October. Now, ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ is delayed to a tentative Christmas release, and that’s from the same studio that had so much confidence on ‘Tenet’. ‘Candyman’ is delayed until 2021.
After that comes Disney/Marvel’s ‘Black Widow’ precariously set for November 6. It is now heavily rumored to be shifting its release date to next year. Whether it shifts dates or not many Hollywood observers think it will move to the streaming service and skip theaters altogether. Which is exactly what is heavily rumored for Disney/Pixar’s ‘Soul’ set for November 20, the same day the highly anticipated ‘No Time to Die’ is scheduled for.
To put fuel on that fire, evidence emerged supporting that rumor when Universal reversed the trend by taking its own animated offering, ‘The Croods: A New Age’ out from a scheduled December release and placed it on November 25 for a Thanksgiving holiday treat. If they keep to that date for a theatrical release I fully believe they will make a great box office return.
And that is what theaters need to survive right now. They need Hollywood to be confidant in the U.S. theatergoers that want to show up and support them. Yes, America is a mess right now, but much like an awkward teenager it just needs you, Hollywood, to see them for what they are and accept them. Theaters on the coasts like New York and California are closed so you ignore us? Look past those temporary zits and see the rest of us. You have confidence in the overseas markets, have confidence in U.S.
There is a little movie that is making some waves right now. ‘After We Collided’, a young adult romance, made on a modest budget with a mostly unknown cast is doing fantastic at the box office overseas. So well in fact that box office analysts are claiming it is performing like “normal times” again, meaning as though Covid-19 is over.
Covid-19 is most definitely not over, but the box office performance of ‘After We Collided’ clearly shows that audiences are eager to get out to the movies again. It is set for a domestic release soon. If this movie can make with an unknown cast just think of the glory of bringing back the big stars to the screen.
Until Hollywood gets its confidence back the U.S. theaters will have to wait for the movies that do get released to come back from overseas before domestic audiences can even attempt to return to normal.