ON GENRE Oscar Picks – 93rd Academy Awards

by Conan Simmons – April 25, 2021 – 7:12 am

Tonight is the night Hollywood eagerly anticipates every year and with fewer movies than ever being released in 2020 the Academy Awards are in a tight race as almost every film with a chance at a nomination got a nomination.

Before getting into to nominees and potential winners let’s acknowledge some of the quality films that did not receive a nomination this year.

First and foremost is ‘The 40 Year Old Version’, a surprisingly very funny movie whose star, Radha Blank, also produced, wrote and directed the black-and-white comedy about a 40 year old woman, once a promising playwright, decides to become a rapper to fulfill herself as an artist.

Other notable films of last year are Guy Ritchie’s gangster comedy ‘The Gentleman’ featuring a wonderful performance by Hugh Grant playing against type. ‘Never Rarely Sometimes Always’ is a filmmakers film that predictably wasn’t going to get nominated and is yet more memorable than some of the films that did get nominated, especially the scene which gives the movie its title. Then there’s the critics’ favorite, ‘First Cow’, a western that may of had a chance for a nomination in the costume category.

And now, ON GENRE picks who wins the Oscars! (a prediction):

BEST PICTURE: ‘Nomadland’

The film that has been sweeping all awards before it will most likely win here as well. Though fellow nominees ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’, ‘Minari’ and ‘Promising Young Woman’ have strong support amongst Oscar voters ‘Nomadland’ seems the less polarizing. I have long held the theory that the Academy is not as daring as many believe especially when it comes to this category. ‘Moonlight’ is the best case of proving me wrong on that theory, but not entirely. (My theory should probably be a post unto itself.)

BEST DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao, ‘Nomadland’

Again, Zhao has swept every award this season and there is no reason to think this is the holdout.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Chadwick Boseman, ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’

Yes, Anthony Hopkins won the BAFTA for this category but the BAFTA and Oscar voters are different when it comes to supporting homegrown content. Boseman does deliver a memorable performance, especially with his monologue scene. Riz Ahmed is an outside favorite but I think we all know Boseman is getting the win here.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Andra Day, ‘The United States vs. Billie Holiday’

This is perhaps the hardest category to predict this year. I loved Viola Davis’ performance in ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’. Davis won the SAG award for her role but it should be noted that Andra Day is not a member of SAG and therefore wasn’t eligible. Also, Frances McDormand took home the BAFTA for ‘Nomadland’ but again, ‘The United States vs. Billie Holiday’ wasn’t released in the U.K. in time for eligibility. My prediction is Davis and McDormand split Academy voters providing an opening for Day to take home the gold.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Daniel Kaluuya, ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’

Another dominant force this awards season, Kaluuya is the clear frontrunner to win. It’s good to see Paul Raci get nominated for his role in ‘Sound of Metal’. The years biggest snub has got to be Delroy Lindo being overlooked in this category for his unforgettable character in Spike Lee’s ‘Da 5 Bloods’. He had all the Oscar buzz up until January 6. Moving on.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Yuh-Jung Youn, ‘Minari’

‘Minari’ is a popular favorite and is bound to win at least one award. I put its best chance in this category. Amanda Seyfried was the best part of ‘Mank’ but her awards heat died down after losing both the Golden Globe and BAFTA. Maria Bakalova could be the night’s breakout star if voters go for her role in ‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’, though we all know comedies usually come up short on Oscar night and I think it goes double for such a pointed political satire. Of course, it means another year of Glenn Close not taking the prize. Close does well with her role in ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ but that movie is without a doubt the worst movie to be nominated this year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: ‘Promising Young Woman’

I know Aaron Sorkin is one of Hollywood’s preeminent screenwriters and any Sorkin fan must see ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’. However, I feel that ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’ is going to split the vote with Sorkin’s sophomore directorial effort. Given that both films deal with the same time period and similar subject matter that is going to open the door for Emerald Fennell’s revenge comedy to snag the win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: ‘The White Tiger’

‘Nomadland’ may seem like the favorite to win until you see how heavily it leans into documentary which can’t be scripted, much like ‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’ and it’s infamous scene. ‘The Father’ is more likely after winning the BAFTA in this category. To me ‘The White Tiger’ is the type of gritty film that I’m always glad to see in this category and though it may be an underdog here I’m pulling for the upset win with ‘The White Tiger’ taking the stage.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: ‘Another Round’

It’s the favorite film of the year for so many in Hollywood and with Thomas Vinterberg helming Mads Mikkelsen, whose dancing is perhaps the years most talked about cinema highlight, this comedy about a drinking experiment is more about life and enjoying what you have. No other film in this category has the awards heat of ‘Another Round’.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: ‘Soul’

The only film in this category to rival ‘Soul’ is ‘Wolfwalkers’. Animated movies have really gained in popularity over the last 10 years with more studios producing a wide variety of films. The one thing that irks me about animated films is, so far, I can usually spot the winner of this category as soon as a trailer is released. I really hope this category is harder to predict next time.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: ‘My Octopus Teacher’

Get ready for some ‘The Shape of Water’ jokes at the ceremony. The underwater cinematography is what puts this film out front. Its main competition will be from ‘Crip Camp’ which has a strong chance due to a theme that affects so many people.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: ‘Soul’

Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross made a strong case for their nomination in scoring ‘Mank’. That would be the winner had they not added Jon Baptiste to make a trio for Pixar’s ‘Soul’. It’s no contest here.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Io Si” from ‘The Life Ahead’

Though my personal favorite in this category is “Fight for You” from ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’ it just hasn’t gained traction amongst voters that I can tell. “Io Si” may be in Italian, as sung by Laura Pausini, it is also written by Diane Warren who is among the many-times-nominated-never-won perennials. Diane Warren has enough Hollywood clout to woo the votes and correct that this year.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: ‘Nomadland’

The cinematography of ‘Nomadland’ is second only to the directing by Zhao. There may be some competition from ‘Judas and the Black Messiah’ but I don’t think it will topple ‘Nomadland’.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’

89 year old costume designer Ann Roth is one of the oldest Oscar nominees in history. After winning the BAFTA and the Costume Designers Guild award for ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’ it’s hard to see how she loses here. She defeated fellow nominees ‘Emma’ and ‘Mank’ at both previous awards. ‘Mulan’ defeated ‘Pinocchio’ at the Costume Designers Guild, where the two films were nominated in a separate category from the other three contenders.

BEST EDITING: ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’

The Aaron Sorkin film won the Eddie Award from the American Council of Editors beating out fellow nominees ‘Nomadland’ and ‘Sound of Metal’ in the Dramatic Feature category. Andy Samberg’s hilarious ‘Palm Springs’ defeated ‘Promising Young Woman’ in the Comedy category. ‘The Father’ was edited by Yorgos Lamprinos who is not a member of the American Council of Editors. Before you think he could get the Oscar here consider that ‘Sound of Metal’ defeated ‘The Father’ for the BAFTA in this category.

BEST MAKUP AND HAIRSTYLING: ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’

It won the BAFTA against most of the same competitors. It will repeat its victory.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: ‘Mank’

Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic ‘Tenet’ does have some good production design up until the end where a climactic battle takes place in what looks like a literal sandbox, did they run out of budget? David Fincher’s ‘Mank’ is likely to avoid the Oscar drought of Martin Scorsese’s ‘The Irishman’ and pick up a golden trophy here.

BEST SOUND: ‘Sound of Metal’

Riz Ahmed’s performance, as great as it is, gets appropriately overshadowed by the sound in this movie. In my review of the film last December I called this the Oscar winner. If you haven’t read my review of ‘Sound of Metal’ you can do so here and read the case I make for its deserved win.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: ‘Tenet’

Like ‘Soul’ winning Best Animated Feature, does anyone think ‘Tenet’ won’t win this category?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: ‘Burrow’

Every year I think the short film categories are where my predictions will be wrong and strangely I tend to do pretty well in picking the winners among the shorts. The only film nominated in this category that I’ve seen is ‘If Anything Happens I Love You’ which has a strong message that ultimately makes for one of the most depressing nominees this year. That’s not the reason I’m not picking that one, no, the reason is there were moments in the animation I felt could have been smoother. As difficult as it is to pick a winner in this category it’s hard not to stick with Disney’s ‘Burrow’.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT: ‘The Present’

This is the only film in this category that I’ve seen and I wasn’t surprised it won a BAFTA. Taking place along the border of Israel and Palestine the film is a reminder of how government imposed border restrictions disrupt everyday life. First time director Farah Nabulsi will most assuredly be offered a feature film to direct soon.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: ‘A Love Song for Latasha’

The only film in this category that I’ve seen and I’m picking it. There is a strong chance that ‘A Concerto is a Conversation’ gets the win due to both its connection to the Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles and that it’s backed by the New York Times. However, I’m picking ‘A Love Song for Latasha’ for two reasons: it is a story of a young life lost due to racist violence, which has been a theme as dominant as Covid-19 for the past year, making it very relevant for today’s society and the avant-garde filmmaking style so rare in Oscar nominated movies makes me really hope it will win and encourage more filmmakers to take bigger chances with their movies.